January 20, 2021. Inauguration Day. The end of an era. Following four years under President Donald Trump, the United States will have a new president.
What should we expect under the administration of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris? Your answer to this question will likely depend on your top priorities. At FINTRAIL, we have been working to help our clients understand and prepare for any and all financial crime-related changes that are anticipated under the new administration. While some specifics are up in the air, it is clear that tackling illicit finance will be a top priority.
Broadly, we can expect to see some changes from the top down. The new Deputy Treasury Secretary, Adewale Adeyemo, has promised a review of the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence’s programs, including FinCEN, with plans to increase both staffing and budget. With new resources, there is likely to be new guidance and potentially new enforcement measures coming into force.
Let’s explore in a bit more detail what we are and aren’t likely to see across the major financial crime areas over the next four years:
Money Laundering
At the start of the year, Congress passed the latest National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which the Biden Administration will be responsible for implementing. The NDAA outlined several major changes for BSA/AML professionals, particularly the development of a beneficial ownership register. Once implemented, this register will have a huge impact on CDD for legal entities. Professionals should also keep an eye out for the Biden Administration’s top AML priorities, which must be published within 6 months of the NDAA going into effect, as well as the results of Treasury reviews of existing AML/CTF regulations (especially those around SAR filing) and specific studies on emerging technologies, trade-based money laundering and money laundering to China. While not immediate, these outputs may lead to further significant revisions to the existing AML/CTF landscape.
Compliance changes could also come about through other legislation. For example, with Democrats now in control of both houses of Congress, there is likely to be another push to pass the Safe Banking Act, which would give financial institutions a pass to bank the cannabis industry. This would mean needing to revamp your risk appetite and potentially your screening program, as many firms currently screen against lists of legal cannabis providers that cannot yet be banked under federal law.
Terrorist Financing
Two-thirds of US terrorist attacks in the first eight months of 2020 were from far right wing domestic terrorist groups or individuals, and especially in light of the recent Capitol attack, it is likely that far right wing extremism will remain the most pressing terrorism threat to the United States. This will be a top concern for the Biden Administration, and Biden has promised to pass a new law against domestic terrorism. Even before the recent events at the Capitol, Biden was meeting with advocacy groups, such as the Anti-Defamation League, illustrating a unique commitment and exploration of strategies to counter far-right-wing extremism. Practitioners have struggled with the lack of a specific federal crime for domestic terrorism, and there has not yet been a discussion of exactly what elements of counter-terrorism and counter-extremism the Biden Administration will prioritize. There is more explicit counter-terrorist financing legislation around the financing of foreign terrorist groups, for example, and any changes to laws against domestic terrorism could have knock-on effects for our understanding of terrorist financing. In the short term, some measures within the NDAA can be used to improve counter-terrorist financing efforts, particularly through improved public-private information sharing.
Bribery and Corruption
Countering corruption at home and abroad is expected to be a central focus of Biden’s overall agenda. Some of the changes made within the NDAA, especially regarding whistleblower protection and requirements around ownership disclosure, directly play into this. However, for many financial institutions, it is unlikely that there will be major changes in day-to-day anti-bribery and corruption exercises, at least in the short term. FinCEN issued an updated statement on PEPs in August 2020, and while further clarification may come along during the Biden administration, there has been no explicit discussion around the position changing in the near future.
Sanctions Evasion
The Biden Administration has already promised a “top-to-bottom” review of OFAC’s sanctions program. As part of the Obama Administration, Biden did not shy away from the importance of sanctions as a foreign policy tool, so we shouldn’t expect a major shift in their continued use. With that said, there will likely be a shift in the specific regimes applied. Shifts will take time though, especially in light of the recent move to re-add Cuba to the state sponsors of terrorism list and the time that may be needed to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal. In some areas, we can expect sanctions to tighten. For example, Biden’s Chief of Staff, Ron Klain, has already spoken about the introduction of new sanctions in response to the recent Russian cyber attacks against the US government. There is also emphasis on taking a more multilateral approach to issuing sanctions, which could see the roll back of secondary sanctions or the pursuance of joint US/UK or US/European sanctions targeting human rights violators. Make sure your list provider will be able to quickly and accurately provide you with updated OFAC lists and that you understand any new conditions, particularly if more complex sectoral regimes are applied.
Tax Evasion
President Biden’s pick for National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, has previously written about ramping up efforts against tax havens as a core pillar of US trade strategy. Biden has similarly written about the importance of closing tax loopholes and reducing tax avoidance. In the near term, the implementation of the 2021 NDAA will also help with efforts to clamp down on tax evasion, particularly through the targeting of anonymous shell companies. Practitioners should continue to watch this space, as efforts to clamp down on tax avoidance may push some activity that has been licit into being illicit.
Fraud
Fraud is also likely to be prioritized by the incoming administration, but immediate and wide-ranging changes are unlikely.. In terms of prosecution, experts have noted that there is a “serious backlog” of fraud cases, which will likely take time to process. More practically, BSA/AML professionals should pay attention to when Biden’s new $1.9 trillion COVID relief package is passed - most likely sooner than later given the Democrats’ control of the Senate. This promises further government support for individuals and small businesses, which, like the Paycheck Protection Program, is likely to lead to an increase in related fraud typologies. Make sure your monitoring system is tuned to detect these typologies, especially based on any patterns detected during the prior waves of stimulus, and that you have the human and technical resources to manage any surges in fraud.
Market Manipulation
Experts predict there to be an increase in investigations into market manipulation and securities-related crimes, including insider trading and accounting scams. However, it is important to remember that securities prosecutions can take an especially long time, so we are unlikely to see anything immediate in this space. There has not been a substantial discussion around reforms the Biden Administration is planning, but Gary Gensler, the Administration’s likely pick to head the Securities Exchange Commission, has a history of pushing through stricter oversight regulation and “issuing hefty fines,” as seen during the Libor scandal.
There are going to be changes to the way we think about and operate financial crime programs under the Biden Administration. While it may take some time to see the true impact of these changes, the shift in mindset and priorities will hopefully help the US continue modernising its overall approach to anti-financial crime.